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The New Financial Order: Risk in the 21st Century ハードカバー – 2003/4/2

4.3 5つ星のうち4.3 33個の評価

The best-selling author of Irrational Exuberance provides an eye-opening look at the impact of a rapidly evolving global economy on the financial world of the twenty-first century and presents six fundamental principles for using modern information technology and advanced financial theory to hedge risk and secure our financial future. 20,000 first printing. (Business & Finance)
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商品の説明

商品説明

ベストセラーとなった『Irrational Exuberance』の中で、著者ロバート・シラーは、株式市場に対する社会の執着が、市場の不安定化に拍車をかけており、不安定な金融システムの原因になっていると指摘する。われわれは株式市場に気を取られるあまり、より耐久性のある経済効果に気づいていないと語るシラーの警鐘は、これまで見過ごされてきたポイントだ。そこには、生活収入や住宅といった実物資産の目に見えない可能性が隠されている。しかし、われわれの幸せにとって実に基本的なこうした「普通の富」が、激変するグローバル経済において急速に広がっているリスクにさらされている。この重要な新著は、リスクを避けること、そして私たちの経済的な将来を守ることについて、新鮮なビジョンを提供して読者を引き込んでいく。

シラーは、現代の情報テクノロジーと先端の金融理論をどのように用いれば、リスク管理企業によって見落とされてきた基本的なリスク――仕事と家庭の価値へのリスク、コミュニティーの活力に対するリスク、国家経済そのものの安定についてのリスク――を避けることができるかについて6つの基本的なアイデアを示している。包括的なリスク情報データベースに基づいたこの新しい金融秩序は、リスク取引や、格差保険から世代間の社会保障までを含む無数の新しい金融機会を試すグローバル市場までも含んでいる。ちょうど一世紀前に、生活、健康、災害へのリスクをカバーする保険が発明されて、私たちの生活の質が大きく変わったように、重要な資産を守ろうとするシラーの構想は、私たちの生活を豊かにしてくれるものとなるはずだ。

シラーは、本書によって再び、私たちの普通の富を、これまで見られなかったようなレベルの経済的安全、公平さ、成長に変換してくれる強力な手段を与えてくれた。今回もまた、経済に関係のあるすべての人々はロバート・シラーの声に、耳を傾ける必要があるだろう。

レビュー

Shiller's ambition is exhilarating, and gives his work something that most business books lack; a deep sense of how economic ideas might transform people's everyday lives. The New Yorker The New Financial Order [is] ... easily accessible and pleasantly utopian. Washington Post Certain to be controversial. Publishers Weekly It is an understatement to say Shiller's book raises complex political, legal and economic questions. Some will probably never happen. But The New Financial Order is still worth a look. It casts some long-standing social problems in a new light, and it puts some fascinating ideas on the table. -- Andrew Cassel Philadelphia Inquirer While [his] ideas may sound unfamiliar--even radical--Shiller's reasoned case recalls earlier financial innovations such as stock and futures markets, life and unemployment insurance, and earned income tax credits. The earlier innovations addressed the financial and risk management needs of individuals and societies in the same way Shiller proposes for his concepts. Library Journal The good news, on Professor Shiller's analysis, is that it is now possible to conceive and construct trade-able indices that will allow insurers to offer protection against such things as industrial decline and demographically-induced pension shortfalls. If we all knew such insurance was available, we could afford more risks with our choice of career, to the benefit of the economy. Creativity is the lifeblood of capitalist economics. Emotional worries about the risk of unemployment are one of the biggest threats to continued innovation... The data and technology to make a market in such things exists. All that is lacking, Professor Shiller says, is the will to make them a commercial reality. -- Jonathan Davis The Independent There are financial markets that help us manage fluctuations in corporate profitability and commodity prices. But there are no markets to help manage risks from fluctuations in labor markets and housing markets, even though these have a much bigger impact on most peoples' financial security. How could we design markets to help manage such risks? This challenging problem is examined in Robert J. Shiller's book The New Financial Order. -- Hal R. Varian New York Times [A] though-provoking book. Risk Livelihood insurance. Income-linked loans. Inequality insurance. These are some of the bold and imaginative ideas suggested by Robert Shiller... [W]hile the practical barriers to some of Shiller's suggestions may be immense, there is much that is stimulating in this book. If one were to look 30 years ahead, it would be foolish to bet against at least one of his ideas being widely adopted. -- Philip Coggan Financial Times [Shiller's] ideas are striking, to put it mildly... Mr. Shiller himself is doubtful that all his ideas will be adopted. But his book, which contains some fascinating history, is at the very least thought-provoking. The Economist Unemployment is up. Housing sales are weakening. Oil prices continue to fluctuate, and the stock market remains volatile. There's no doubt we live in risky times, yet our tools for managing risk are limited... How could we design markets to help manage such risks? This challenging problem is examined in Robert J. Shiller's book... Here Mr. Shiller turns to the role of financial institutions in managing risk... It is said that behind every successful man is a surprised mother-in-law. If so, there could be quite a large market for such securities. -- Hal R. Varian New York Times Millions of individual investors could have saved themselves enormous sums of money, and an equivalent amount of grief, by taking Robert Shiller's advice three years ago... Now Shiller is back with another book that also holds warnings of sorts--this time about societal wealth inequalities and the need to mitigate what he calls 'the risks that rally matter in our lives.' If Irrational Exuberance was a sober assessment of a situation that was well known yet widely defended--the nation's infatuation with stocks--The New Financial Order is a dissertation on problems many people don't know they have... Shiller, however, has let his imagination run in this book. -- Tom Petruno Los Angeles Times In a non-technical way, Shiller engages readers in a wide-ranging consideration of risk and introduces novel ideas concerning the ways people identify, view, and guard against risk... This topic may seem to appeal to a limited audience, but the author's style enables him to broach what might have been tedious topics in an entertaining way. Choice

登録情報

  • 出版社 ‏ : ‎ Princeton Univ Pr (2003/4/2)
  • 発売日 ‏ : ‎ 2003/4/2
  • 言語 ‏ : ‎ 英語
  • ハードカバー ‏ : ‎ 366ページ
  • ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 0691091722
  • ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-0691091723
  • 寸法 ‏ : ‎ 16.51 x 3.18 x 24.13 cm
  • カスタマーレビュー:
    4.3 5つ星のうち4.3 33個の評価

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ロバート・J.シラー
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他のお客様にも意見を伝えましょう

上位レビュー、対象国: 日本

2003年5月12日に日本でレビュー済み
Economist Robert Shiller became a household name when he published his previous bestseller Irrational Exuberance just as the dot.com boom was peaking. In The New Financial Order, he capitalizes on his celebrity to put forward a thoughtful, detailed proposal for managing economic risks. This highly readable book portrays a future in which many serious individual financial risks are dispersed to savvy global investors, thanks to technology. Imagine violinists being able to insure their careers in addition to their Stradivarius instruments, developing countries securing generous loans from the first world by tying the repayment schedules to their future GDPs and a revamped tax system preventing the gap between rich and poor from widening. We from getAbstract suggest this book to risk-management professionals who want to step back and look at the big picture, as well as to anyone who has a stake in creating new financial products to meet twenty-first century needs.
13人のお客様がこれが役に立ったと考えています
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他の国からのトップレビュー

すべてのレビューを日本語に翻訳
Avinash Patil
5つ星のうち1.0 Not in good condition
2021年1月25日にインドでレビュー済み
Amazonで購入
Book not in good condition, appears to be very old copy.
Paul Lamurean
5つ星のうち5.0 Five Stars
2015年5月1日に英国でレビュー済み
Amazonで購入
Great book
Alex L
5つ星のうち2.0 deludente
2014年12月27日にイタリアでレビュー済み
Amazonで購入
Nel fiume di libri su rischi e crisi finanziaria questo è uno dei più banali e inutili. Aggiunge poco e senza guizzi
Thomas Mongle
5つ星のうち5.0 Big Brother meet the Free Market
2004年1月9日にアメリカ合衆国でレビュー済み
Amazonで購入
This is a big, big book. Although it contains only 276 pages of commentary, its scope envisions a brave new world we can only imagine and argue about. No doubt the outcome of the argument will weigh heavily on our future for years to come. Professor Robert J. Shiller needs no introduction. Whether by intent or luck, his "Irrational Exuberance" warning about our overvalued stock market was published around the time NASDAQ topped out just above 5000 (March 2000). The rest is history. And while I, as a former member of two options exchanges, certainly welcome any suggestion to increase the trading opportunities available to us today, the six innovative financial instruments he proposes to reduce/share risk leave a lot to be explained, both mechanically and philosophically. The book, though, rates five stars for its thought-provoking ideas and for the stature that Shiller brings to them. There's a lot in this book and nothing in it should be discarded without extensive study and reflection. One of life's hardest lessons to accept is that none of us, either individually or collectively, can ignore the dynamic world we live in. Sitting still is not an option because of the relative motion of everyone else in the world. Our only choices are, in the immortal words of Lee Iacocca, "Lead, follow, or get out of the way." Today's informational databases were sure to evoke something like Shiller's ideas. It is useless to turn our heads because it will happen. Therefore the intent of this book should be exposed to the largest possible number of people because what we decide will determine how we spend the rest of our lives. On the surface, Dr. Shiller would be creating a Dr. Pangloss world, but the devil would be in the details.
The most obvious aspect of Shiller's proposals is that he would use classical capitalistic markets to achieve classical socialistic goals. A most creative feat in and of itself. Insuring against risk, of course, is nothing new. Lloyd's of London dates back to Edward Lloyd's coffeehouse in the late 1680s. But not only does Shiller want to mitigate the risk of error in individual decision making, he also wants to insure "society" against the collective mistakes of all. It will be interesting to see which power groups line up on which side of the argument. Maybe he isn't proposing cradle-to-grave socialism, but certainly something close to young-professional-through-retirement risk sharing as administered/regulated by a combination of governmental/financial superbodies.
He convincingly begins his presentation with a short history of how new innovations are always refuted at first, then eventually work their way into our lives. This is a good start to set the stage for his own ground-breaking ideas.
There is no point in going over the mechanics of the proposals because they will see many different permutations before they ever become tradable entities, but more important are the goals and philosophy that pushes them all.
His first proposal covers personal insurance: livelihood insurance to reduce the risk of people embarking on a dead-end profession. He is inspired here by the very legitimate concern that society losses out on tremendous talent when gifted individuals steer away from professions that might not pay off in the future. He feels that if we insure them against this failure, their contributions will pay off in the long run. Also included in personal insurance is his proposal for home equity insurance to guard against a decline in your home's value. He's already put his money where his mouth is by incubating such a company and then selling it to a financial conglomerate.
Next is MacroMarkets. Here he envisions GDP futures to enable trading in national economies based on how they perform. One of the benefits here would be when a country's GDP begins to weaken, it would be a signal to the affected economy's leaders that something must be done to remedy the situation or else things will get worse.
Third, he addresses banking and income-linked loans. Interest rates on loans would rise or fall with one's income, region, or profession, and could be used to modify or eliminate current bankruptcy laws. However, could a bank stay solvent by lending money on fluctuating terms unless it could also pay interest on fluctuating terms? We've just lived through the S & L crisis borne out of this same scenario.
Fourth, he tackles his most inflammatory subject, that of income inequality. His basic fear here, along with Dr. Ravi Batra and others, is that increasing disparity of income leads to riots, revolutions, and war. But who decides what is fair and equitable? And would an earlier leveling effect have robbed us of the builders Carnegie, Rockefeller, and Ford up through Walton and Gates?
Fifth - Intergenerational social security. This is the most pressing problem today and will cause the most heated debates going forward. What is fair can be debated until we all die of old age.
Last, he would like to set up swaps between rich and poor, strong and weak nations based on their GDPs. But what happens when politicians are accused of "exporting jobs" like companies are today? They won't be in office very long. The IMF doesn't have a great record getting the masses to toe the line either when it comes to living up to prior agreements.
The scariest ingredient of all Shiller's proposals is the collection, retrieval and analysis of masses of amounts of information (GRID) needed to administer such an interconnected trading arrangement. Yet, the Internet is making us one people, and Shiller's financial instruments would make us one world, interconnected, co-dependent, and risk-sharing. If Clausewitz was right that war is politics by other means, then perhaps politics is economics by other means. Maybe the time has come for economics to supercede politics and maybe Shiller is showing the way. He does have a vision. Do we want to be part of it or not?
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J. Rogelio
5つ星のうち5.0 Amazing!
2012年2月13日にアメリカ合衆国でレビュー済み
Amazonで購入
The New Financial Order: Risk in the 21st Century

Professor Bob got it right once again. When I was reading this book, I was wondering how can he realize things that are not that obvious for others? Basically, the six ideas he suggests are topics in risk management strategies that must be explored before it is too late; that he said it in 2003!, now we have lived a major economic crisis because the risk management processes lack of robustness. It was worth the time I spent reading it.
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