内容

目次

List of Figures xi List of Tables xiii Acknowledgments xvii Prologuexxi CHAPTER ONE: Presidential Campaigns 1 Basic Questions 2 What'sComing 3 PART I CHAPTER TWO: How and Why Campaigns Matter 9 TheChallenge 10 Something's Happening in America 11 The Importance of theEconomy 12 The Importance of the Media 14 A Theory of Campaign Effects 15Integrating Literatures 16 Spatial Voting: The Past as Predictor of theFuture 18 Retrospective Voting and Campaign Effects 22 Individual-LevelCharacteristics and Campaign Effects 23 CHAPTER THREE: Context Matters:A Campaign Typology 26 Theoretical Predictions 28 A Campaign Typology 31Clarifying Campaigns 31 Insurgent Campaigns 32 When the Economy Is Mixed 33Predicting Campaign Types, 1952-2000 35 PART II CHAPTER FOUR: TheMedia Disconnect:Media and Candidate Messages 43 Candidates' Messages andHow to Measure Them 46 Advertisements and Speeches 46 Newspaper Coverage 48Coding the Ads, Speeches, and News Coverage 53 The Content of ModernCampaigns 57 The Media Disconnect 58 CHAPTER FIVE: The Message Matters:Candidate-Level Tests of the Theory 67 Clarifying Campaigns: DominatingEconomic Discussion 69 Insurgent Campaigns: Issue Selection Matters 71Stevenson 1952 and 1956: Second Time Same as the First 76 Goldwater 1964:Just Enough Power to Get the Job Done 78 Carter 1980 and Mondale 1984:Warthrough Strength 80 Dukakis 1988: An Unfocused American Dream 82 InsurgentCandidates Making Wise Choices 83 Kennedy 1960: High Hopes 83 Nixon 1968:Freedom from Fear or Racial Appeal? 86 Carter 1976: Outside and Honest 90Two More Tests of the Theory at the Candidate Level 105 A More Rigorous Testof Compliance 105 Explaining the Errors in Forecasting Models 107 PARTIII CHAPTER SIX: The Message Matters:Microlevel Tests of the Theory 113Clarifying Candidate Campaign Effects: Do Campaign Messages Shape Voters'Evaluations of Candidates? 115 High Fidelity? 116 Ads:Messages That Matter120 Clarifying Candidate Campaign Effects: Do Campaign Messages Help VotersLearn about Candidates' Issue Positions? 123 Measuring Uncertainty 125Reducing Uncertainty 128 Campaign Learning about the Economy 131Insurgent-Candidate Campaign Effects: Changing the Debate by Increasing theImportance of Issues 134 The Most Important Problem in the Nation 137 MostImportant Problem and Vote Choice 140 Insurgent Candidate Campaign Effects:Being Closer to Most Voters on the Insurgent Issue 144 The Difference inDistances 144 Differences in Distances and Vote Choice 151 The Message andIts Effects 155 CHAPTER SEVEN: Candidates Creating Context 159 CanCandidates Create the Context? 160 Creating Salience: Finding the RightInsurgent Issue 163 Appendix 167 References 191 Index 199